Propose an edit: graduation rate

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Title Category One sentence summary Infobox, one "key: value" per line Article body, markdown, use [[wiki links]] and end with a ## References section

On [[pump fun]], a token "graduates" when buyers push its [[bonding curve]] to completion, at which point its liquidity migrates to a decentralized exchange, originally [[raydium]] and, since March 2025, [[pumpswap]]. The graduation rate, the percentage of launched tokens that ever reach this point, is the single most cited statistic about the platform, because it quantifies how rarely a meme coin in [[the trenches]] survives even its first stage.

## The mechanics

Each pump.fun token mints one billion units, with 800 million sold along the curve. Graduation triggers when the curve accumulates roughly 85 SOL in real reserves, historically corresponding to a market capitalization around $69,000. At graduation, liquidity (about $12,000 in the Raydium era) is deposited into a DEX pool and the pool tokens are burned, after which the token trades like any other Solana asset.

## The statistics

Data compiled in early 2025 from platform analytics put the lifetime graduation rate at about 1.4 percent, with day to day rates typically between 1 and 2 percent: on the order of 100 to 200 graduations from more than 20,000 daily launches. The same datasets found that only about 3 percent of pump.fun user accounts had ever realized more than $1,000 in profit. In 2025 Cointelegraph reported the rate had fallen below 1 percent as launches outpaced demand, and by mid June 2026 the daily rate collapsed to roughly 0.26 percent amid a broader meme coin slump, an 80 percent decline in three months. Analysts summarize the situation simply: over 98 percent of bonding curve tokens never graduate. An academic survival analysis posted to arXiv in 2026 studied 832,941 pump.fun launches and found that measurable social presence significantly affected a token's odds of surviving to graduation.

## Recovery mechanisms

pump.fun has repeatedly tuned incentives to raise the number. The [[project ascend]] dynamic fee system of September 2025 doubled bonding curve volumes by paying creators more on small tokens, and in 2026 the BOOST launch mechanism, which directly rewards progress toward graduation, coincided with the rate jumping to a six month high, touching 6.7 percent on its best day, roughly eight times the June 2026 average.

## Interpretation

The graduation rate is often quoted as a measure of how extreme the odds are for buyers of fresh launches, but graduation itself guarantees nothing: analyses of graduated cohorts found most graduated tokens also decline toward zero after migration. The metric is therefore best read as a funnel statistic, the first of several filters between a launch and a durable coin, rather than as a success rate.

## References

1. https://www.odaily.news/en/post/5197733
2. https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2139008
3. https://en.theblockbeats.news/news/54675
4. https://tr.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph%3A56f07a8fa094b%3A0-pump-fun-memecoins-are-dying-at-record-rates-less-than-1-survive
5. https://www.dextools.io/news/pump-fun-graduation-collapse-solana-fees-2026
6. https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/409815/pump-fun-token-graduation-rate-jumps-boost-changes-launch-incentives
7. https://www.cryptopolitan.com/pump-fun-token-graduations-six-month-high/
8. https://arxiv.org/html/2607.02823
9. https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/solana/pump-fun-percent-graduated-tokens-daily

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